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Mark Lammey
MLB HR PICK
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Aaron Judge (NYY)
To Hit a Home Run (+245)
Ok, we're finally calling for it. It's back to the Bronx for us to see Judge hit his first homer since returning. Mets start Zac Thornton has a .202 expected ISO to righties, and against lefty cutters last year, Judge hit .727 with 4 homers in 11 ABs. Small sample size, but his overall history speaks for itself.
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Howard Bender
MLB STOLEN BASE PICK
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Victor Mesa Jr. (TB)
To Steal a Base (+529)
Since coming off the injured list, Mesa Jr. has been phenomenal, slashing .387/.408/.613 with three stolen base attempts (2-for-3) across seven starts. While the batting average isn't as good against RHP as it is lefties, his walk rate is more than double what it is against southpaws. Houston's Peter Lambert has a 13.7 percent walk rate against LHH in 2026, and he has a 1.47 WHIP over his last seven starts. Lambert's likely battery mate today, Christian Vazquez, has a 22% caught stealing rate on the year.
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